Thursday, September 30, 2021

The Morning: Vaccine firings, Britney Spears, swimming with sharks

When George Washington mandated immunization.

Good morning. Immunization mandates aren't new. One helped win the American Revolution.

A vaccination site in New York City this week.Justin Lane/EPA, via Shutterstock

The right to health

The United States owes its existence as a nation partly to an immunization mandate.

In 1777, smallpox was a big enough problem for the bedraggled American army that George Washington thought it could jeopardize the Revolution. An outbreak had already led to one American defeat, at the Battle of Quebec. To prevent more, Washington ordered immunizations — done quietly, so the British would not hear how many Americans were sick — for all troops who had not yet had the virus.

It worked. The number of smallpox cases plummeted, and Washington's army survived a war of attrition against the world's most powerful country. The immunization mandate, as Ron Chernow wrote in his 2010 Pulitzer Prize-winning biography of Washington, "was as important as any military measure Washington adopted during the war."

In the decades that followed, immunization treatments became safer (the Revolutionary War method killed 2 percent or 3 percent of recipients), and mandates became more common, in the military and beyond. They also tended to generate hostility from a small minority of Americans.

A Cambridge, Mass., pastor took his opposition to a smallpox vaccine all the way to the Supreme Court in 1905, before losing. Fifty years later, while most Americans were celebrating the start of a mass vaccination campaign against polio, there were still some dissenters. A United Press wire-service article that ran in newspapers across the country on April 13, 1955, reported:

Hundreds of doctors and registered nurses stood ready to begin the stupendous task of inoculating the millions of children throughout the country.

Some hitches developed, however. In Maryland's Montgomery County, 4,000 parents flatly refused to let their youngsters receive the vaccine. Two counties in Indiana objected that the plan smacked of socialized medicine.

Many vaccinations, few firings

We are now living through this cycle again. The deadline for many workplace mandates arrived this week, often requiring people to have received a Covid-19 vaccine or face being fired. In California, the deadline for health care workers is today.

As was the case with Washington's army, the mandates are largely succeeding:

  • California's policy has led thousands of previously unvaccinated medical workers to receive shots in recent weeks. At Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, about 800 additional workers have been vaccinated since the policy was announced last month, bringing the hospital's vaccination rate to 97 percent, according to my colleague Shawn Hubler.
  • When New York State announced a mandate for hospital and nursing-home staff members in August, about 75 percent of them had received a shot. By Monday, the share had risen to 92 percent. The increase amounts to roughly 100,000 newly vaccinated people.
  • At Trinity Health, a hospital chain in 22 states, the increase has been similar — to 94 percent from 75 percent, The Times's Reed Abelson reports. At Genesis HealthCare, which operates long-term-care facilities in 23 states, Covid cases fell by nearly 50 percent after nearly all staff members had finished receiving shots this summer.

Often, the number of people who ultimately refuse the vaccine is smaller than the number who first say they will. Some are persuaded by the information their employer gives them — about the vaccines' effectiveness and safety, compared with the deadliness of Covid — and others decide they are not really willing to lose their jobs.

A North Carolina hospital system, Novant Health, last week suspended 375 workers, or about 1 percent of its work force, for being unvaccinated. By the end of the week, more than half of them — about 200 — received a shot and were reinstated.

Of course, 175 firings are not nothing. (A Washington Post headline trumpeted the story as "one of the largest-ever mass terminations due to a vaccine mandate.") United Airlines said this week that it would terminate even more employees — about 600, or less than 1 percent of its U.S. work force.

These firings can create hardship for the workers and short-term disruptions for their employers. But those disruptions tend to be fleeting, because the percentage of workers is tiny. "I'm not seeing any widespread disruptive effect," Saad Omer of the Yale Institute for Global Health told The Times.

And the benefits — reducing the spread of a deadly virus and lowering the chances it will mutate dangerously in the future — are large.

Health officials in Newark checked smallpox vaccination status in 1931.Bettmann, via Getty Images

Injury to others

The rationale for workplace mandates revolves around those large benefits: Even in a country that prioritizes individual freedom as much as the U.S. does, citizens do not have the right to harm their colleagues or their colleagues' families, friends and communities. One person's right to a healthy life is greater than another person's right to a specific job.

As Carol Silver-Elliott, the chief executive of Jewish Home Family, a senior-care facility in New Jersey, told ABC News about her company's mandate, "We felt it was a small price to pay to keep our elders safe, and it is something we feel very, very strongly about."

After I spent some time reading about the history of vaccine mandates, I was struck by how little the debate has changed over the centuries. In 1905, when the Supreme Court ruled against the Massachusetts pastor who did not want to take a smallpox vaccine, Justice John Marshall Harlan explained that the Constitution did not allow Americans always to behave however they chose. "Real liberty for all could not exist," Harlan wrote in his majority opinion, if people could act "regardless of the injury that may be done to others."

(For more on mandates' history, I recommend a Wall Street Journal essay by David Oshinsky of NYU Langone Health.)

Virus developments:

THE LATEST NEWS

Politics
  • The federal government will shut down at midnight unless Congress passes a funding bill.
  • Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat, called his party's $3.5 trillion spending plan "fiscal insanity," a sign that moderates and progressives remain divided.
  • House investigators subpoenaed allies of Donald Trump who helped organize the "Stop the Steal" rally before the Capitol riot.
  • And Klete Keller, an Olympic swimmer, pleaded guilty to a role in storming the Capitol on Jan. 6.
  • Corey Lewandowski will no longer oversee a Trump-aligned super PAC after a donor accused him of sexually harassing her.
  • Al Franken is returning to public life — not through politics, but through comedy.
Other Big Stories
Britney Spears supporters outside the courthouse yesterday. "This is what Britney has wanted for 13 years," one fan said.Alex Welsh for The New York Times
Opinions

Divorce can be an act of radical self-love, Lara Bazelon writes.

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MORNING READS

Illustration by Juliette Toma

(Re)watching: Why do young people feel such a connection to "The Sopranos"?

That aged poorly: The Times Book Review panned some classics.

Swimming in an uncertain sea: A filmmaker talks about his encounters with sharks.

Mood: All hail the melting face emoji.

A Times classic: How to get involved in politics.

Lives Lived: George Malkemus helped turn "Manolos" into a global shoe brand. That they became a leitmotif on "Sex and the City" didn't hurt. He died at 67.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A brown tawny owl.Bernd Zoller/Alamy

A shifting world

How are animals and plants responding to climate change? That's the subject of Thor Hanson's new book, "Hurricane Lizards and Plastic Squid." "In an interconnected world," the scientist Jonathan Balcombe writes in a review, "rapid changes always carry consequences."

One example: the "escalator to extinction." On a heating planet, life-forms that have adapted to certain elevations are forced to higher ground, until they reach the top and, having nowhere else to go, die. It has already happened to birds, moths and tree seedlings.

A changing environment also means animals' appearances will adapt: In Finland, the brown tawny owl is overtaking the more common gray one, linked to declining snow cover. Moths in London, Balcombe points out, underwent a similar shift from white to gray when the Industrial Revolution coated the city in soot.

"Despite the gravity of its subject, though, this is not a depressing book," Balcombe writes. "Hanson is an affable guide and storyteller, with a knack for analogy, a sense of humor and the natural curiosity of a scientist." For more, including an experiment involving lizards' toes, read the rest of the review. — Sanam Yar, a Morning writer

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
Joseph De Leo for The New York Times

This lentil soup defies expectations.

Critic's Notebook

Lip-syncing used to be the domain of pop stars that the media saw as talentless. Now it's how scrappy amateurs get famous.

What to Read

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Late Night

Stephen Colbert broke into song.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday's Spelling Bee was pavilion. We know that some readers were disappointed that "Pavlovian" was not also accepted, and we asked Sam Ezersky, the editor of the Bee, about it.

Sam's reply: "While it's a nice find, Spelling Bee does not accept proper, capitalized terms. Of course, there are always exceptions. Curiously, 'google' as a verb has entered the lexicon in the lowercase, as has 'manhattan,' per Merriam-Webster, when referring to the cocktail."

Here is today's Bee — or you can play online.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Red or rosé (four letters).

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. The Berlin airlift officially ended 72 years ago today.

"The Daily" is about the infrastructure vote. "Sway" features Andrew Yang. "Popcast" is about Aaliyah's musical legacy.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti, Ashley Wu and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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Wednesday, September 29, 2021

The Morning: Unpopulism, a Trump tell-all, extinctions

Why might Democrats scrap popular policies?

Good morning. Why are Democrats talking about scrapping some of the most popular parts of their agenda?

A pharmacy in Little Rock, Ark.Rory Doyle for The New York Times

Unpopulism

Congressional Democrats have been conducting an unusual kind of negotiation over the central piece of President Biden's agenda. As they try to write a bill that can pass both the House and the Senate, they are talking about removing some of the plan's most popular provisions.

An overwhelming majority of Americans favor government action to reduce drug prices, but that policy may not be included in the final bill. Tax increases on the wealthy are also very popular, but it is unclear how many of them will make it, either. The same goes for a proposed expansion of Medicare to include dental, hearing and vision coverage.

It is even possible that the entire bill — which would expand pre-K, community college, Medicare, Medicaid, paid family leave, child tax credits, clean-energy programs and more, while significantly increasing taxes on people making more than $400,000 — will fail. Yet polls have consistently showed it to be popular, more so than some past Democratic priorities, like Bill Clinton's or Barack Obama's health care bills. And if this bill fails, Democrats are likely to enter next year's midterm congressional elections looking divided and unable to govern.

It's still too early to be sure about any of this. Democratic leaders may find a way to keep their party unified enough to pass a major bill, despite their narrow control of Congress. If that happens, the squabbling of recent weeks may not matter much.

But the Democratic tensions are real. This morning, we'll explain the two big reasons that the party is struggling to pass a bill that most voters favor.

The power of lobbying

The first reason is classic interest-group politics: Well-financed, well-organized lobbying groups strongly oppose some of the bill's major provisions.

Most Americans favor lower drug prices, but there is no powerful grass-roots group devoted to the issue. And there is a major lobbying group on the other side — PhRMA, which represents the drug industry. It has helped persuade a few Democrats to oppose a reduction in drug prices, as our colleague Margot Sanger-Katz has explained.

Another example of interest-group politics are the tax increases on the wealthy and corporations. Tax rates on the affluent are near their lowest levels in decades. To keep them there, groups representing the interests of the wealthy have enlisted some of most effective lobbyists in Washington: former members of Congress.

These lobbyists — including Heidi Heitkamp, a former North Dakota senator, and Nick Rahall, a former West Virginia congressman — have been trying to persuade other Democrats to water down or remove the tax increases, as Jonathan Chait of New York magazine has noted. Fewer tax increases in the bill leave less money for health care, schools and clean energy, which in turn has led to contentious intraparty debates over which parts of the plan should be cut. So far, Democrats have not resolved those questions.

Why are these lobbying campaigns able to succeed even when they are trying to persuade elected officials to defy public opinion? The obvious reason — campaign donations — is no doubt part of the answer. But there is also a more subtle dynamic at work, which brings us to our second major explanation.

The real median voter

In elite circles, including Capitol Hill, people often misunderstand American public opinion in a specific way. They imagine that the median voter resembles a type of political moderate who is quite common in those elite circles — somebody who is socially liberal and fiscally conservative.

Michael Bloomberg is an archetype, as are some Republican mayors and governors in blue states. Many people in professional Washington, at think tanks and elsewhere, also fall into the category.

In the rest of the country, however, this ideological combination is not so common, polls show. If anything, more Americans can accurately be described as the opposite — socially conservative and economically liberal. That's true across racial groups, including among Black and Hispanic voters.

Most Americans are religious, for example. Most favor restrictions on both abortion and immigration. Most oppose reductions in police funding. At the same time, most Americans favor higher taxes on the rich and a higher minimum wage, as well as government actions to reduce drug prices, expand health care and create good-paying jobs.

Many centrist Democrats are aware of this reality and cast themselves as culturally moderate populists. But they can also be influenced by the elite's misunderstanding of popular opinion. That seems to be happening right now.

Senator Joe Manchin this week.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times

To prove their moderate bona fides, some Democrats are staking out positions that conflict with public opinion. Senator Joe Manchin has signaled that he opposes expanding Medicare, and Senator Kyrsten Sinema planned a fund-raiser this week with lobbyists who oppose higher tax rates.

These moves may not be entirely irrational. Most voters do not follow politicians' every stance. Voters instead tend to form general impressions, like: Manchin seems less liberal than most Democrats.

Opposing even popular liberal ideas can bolster that image. But it does create an odd situation. The Democratic Party has an opportunity to pass a set of policies that are popular with their base, swing voters and even some Republicans. Instead, the party may fail to do so.

Yesterday's developments

THE LATEST NEWS

The Virus
Politics
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times
  • Top military officials testified before a Senate panel that they had advised Biden not to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan.
  • In a memoir, Donald Trump's former press secretary describes him as abusive and writes that one aide would calm him with show tunes.
  • Kasim Reed, whose tenure as Atlanta's mayor was filled with scandal, is running again.
  • Obama broke ground on his presidential center in Chicago.
  • U.S. wildlife officials declared the extinction of 23 species: 11 birds, eight freshwater mussels, two fish, a bat and a plant.
Other Big Stories
Opinions

The risk isn't that Evergrande will implode; it's that China won't fix its economy, says The Washington Post's Megan McArdle.

Voters favor independent redistricting commissions. Partisans are undermining them, David Daley writes.

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MORNING READS

"Time and again, delicate flavors are hijacked by some harsh, unseen ingredient," Pete Wells writes about Eleven Madison Park.Daniel Krieger for The New York Times

Meatless in Manhattan: Eleven Madison Park reinvented itself as a vegan restaurant. Pete Wells isn't impressed.

Almost famous: As a boy, he missed out on the role of a lifetime: Anakin Skywalker.

New homes: A huge 3-D printer is helping to build a community.

Advice from Wirecutter: Get the most out of your dishwasher.

Lives Lived: The philosopher Charles W. Mills argued that racism played a central role in shaping the liberal political tradition. But he sought ways to salvage aspects of liberalism. He died at 70.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Today's Britney Spears hearing

The conservatorship that has controlled Britney Spears's life for the past 13 years is due back in court in Los Angeles today.

Many questions remain open, including whether James Spears, her father, will continue as the conservator of her estate, and whether the arrangement could soon end.

Spears's lawyer has recently doubled down on attempting to remove her father as her conservator, calling him actively harmful to Spears's well-being. Here's what you need to know before today's hearing.

For more: The Times released a new documentary, "Controlling Britney Spears," in which an employee of a security firm hired under the conservatorship paints a detailed portrait of what Spears's life has been like. One example, according to the documentary: A device in Spears's bedroom recorded more than 180 hours of audio. — Claire Moses, a Morning writer

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
David Malosh for The New York Times

Elevate your instant ramen: Gooey melted Cheddar and kimchi are game-changers.

Filthy Rich

Brian Cox talks about Logan Roy and the new season of "Succession."

What to Read

It's never too late to publish a book and score a Netflix deal. Just ask Jocelyn Nicole Johnson, a public-school teacher and a debut author at 50.

Late Night

The hosts made colonoscopy jokes.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday's Spelling Bee was conjoined. Here is today's puzzle — or you can play online.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Persuade with threats (six letters).

If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. The word "circumtriple" — describing a planet orbiting three stars at once — appeared for the first time in The Times yesterday.

"The Daily" is about Britney Spears. On "The Argument," a debate about sex work.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti, Ashley Wu and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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