Tuesday, August 31, 2021

The Morning: The longest war is over

Plus: Ida's aftermath in Louisiana

Good morning. America's longest war is over.

Taliban fighters watching a C-17 military transport plane leave Kabul at sunset yesterday.Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

The end

After the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, the United States and its allies needed less than four years to vanquish their fascist enemies. After the secession of Southern states in 1860 and 1861, the U.S. spent slightly more than four years defeating the rebellion. After the first battles at Lexington and Concord in 1775, the colonies took about eight years to beat the British and create a new nation.

The war in Afghanistan — which ended yesterday, as the final U.S. troops left — lasted 19 years and 47 weeks, dating to the first bombing of the Taliban on Oct. 7, 2001. It is America's longest war, far longer than the country's great victories and longer even than its previous protracted defeat in Vietnam or stalemate in Korea.

Over the past two decades, the U.S. has been able to claim some accomplishments. American troops killed Osama bin Laden (albeit in Pakistan, not Afghanistan) and captured or killed other architects of the 9/11 attacks. Afghanistan temporarily turned into a democracy where schools improved and women could live more freely than before.

Yet the main accomplishments proved fleeting.

For all of the bravery and sacrifice of the Afghan and American troops who fought together, their leaders failed to create an enduring government or functioning military. Despite two decades of work and a couple of trillion dollars spent, the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed in a matter of days. The regime was evidently no more enduring than it had been five years ago, 10 years ago — or on Dec. 22, 2001, when Hamid Karzai was sworn in as Afghanistan's first post-9/11 leader.

Across the span of American history, it's hard to think of another failed project that lasted so long or cost so much. There have been worse injustices and tragedies in this country, but they were usually deliberate. The U.S. has been attempting to win in Afghanistan for nearly the entire 21st century.

Biden certainly could have overseen a more successful exit than he did, especially if he and his aides had taken more seriously the chances of a rapid Taliban takeover. I also understand that some people believe that an unending, low-level war in Afghanistan was worth the trade-offs. These advocates argue that the number of American soldiers killed each year had fallen into the single digits, while the financial cost was below $20 billion a year (which, by comparison, is a little more than half the country's foreign-aid budget). In exchange, the U.S. likely could have prevented a complete Taliban takeover and the chaos of the past few weeks.

But it's worth emphasizing that this option really did mean unending war. After nearly 20 years and no apparent progress toward an Afghan government that could stand on its own, America's longest war would have continued. It would not have resembled the ongoing U.S. presence in Korea, Japan and Western Europe, where no enemies are launching regular attacks and no American troops are being killed.

It would have involved continued fighting, which has been killing more than 10,000 Afghan troops and more than 1,000 civilians every year. On Sunday, an errant U.S. drone missile may have killed 10 more civilians, including seven children. Continuing the war indefinitely also would have required Biden to renege on Donald Trump's promise, likely causing the Taliban to intensify its attacks and perhaps raising both the human and financial costs.

Instead, for better and worse, America's longest war is over.

More perspectives

Jeff Jacoby of The Boston Globe has made the case for staying in Afghanistan, citing rising literacy, falling infant mortality rates and more: "All this was being sustained in recent years, and the Taliban was being held at bay, with just a relative handful of U.S. troops to provide intelligence, logistics, and air support."

Ross Douthat of The Times's Opinion section disagrees: For years, the U.S. failure was "buried under a Vietnam-esque blizzard of official deceptions and bureaucratic lies."

Peggy Noonan of The Wall Street Journal laments Bush's decision to focus on an invasion of Iraq rather than capturing bin Laden when he was cornered in the Tora Bora region: "What a richly consequential screw-up it was, and how different the coming years might have been, the whole adventure might have been, if we'd gotten it right."

Alissa Rubin — a Times reporter who covered the war — considers another counterfactual: What if the U.S. had accepted the Taliban's offer of conditional surrender in 2001? (In a recent Fresh Air interview, the author Steve Coll highlighted the same moment.)

Nearly 2,500 American troops have died fighting in Afghanistan. Here are their names. (That list does not include the 13 killed last week.)

Afghanistan news

THE LATEST NEWS

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Flooded streets in Laplace, La., yesterday.Emily Kask for The New York Times
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Residents evacuate as the Caldor fire approaches in South Lake Tahoe, Calif., on Monday.Josh Edelson/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Opinions

The F.D.A. needs to move quickly on Covid vaccines for younger children, Michelle Goldberg writes.

Carbon neutrality generates great corporate P.R. But it won't solve climate change, Auden Schendler argues.

Deeply reported journalism needs your support

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MORNING READS

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Stuff: The world is short of everything. Better get used to it.

Queens cheer: Mets fans booed their players. The team booed them back.

A Times classic: What is your love style?

Lives Lived: Don Poynter invented talking toilets, walking golf balls, hot water bottles shaped like Jayne Mansfield and other novelty items. He died at 96.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Aretha Franklin during a recording session in Manhattan in 1969.Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images

Finding the real Aretha

Throughout her career, Aretha Franklin remained fairly unknowable to the public. "I didn't make a dent in her armor," David Ritz, a biographer, once lamented.

Because of this privacy, it's tough for onscreen portrayals of Franklin to fully capture the artist. The most recent attempt — the film "Respect," starring Jennifer Hudson — sticks "too closely to Franklin's own self-image, a narrative that she tightly controlled," Salamishah Tillet writes in The Times.

The Sydney Pollack documentary "Amazing Grace," on the other hand, would not have made it to screens if it were up to Franklin, who repeatedly sued to block its release. Filmed in 1972 over two nights in a Los Angeles Baptist church, the movie was released after Franklin's death. The film, Tillet writes, is "all gospel, a cinematic capturing of spiritual ecstasy and religious exaltation, and a Franklin who surrenders her voice to God, and is at her most sublime." — Sanam Yar, a Morning writer

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
Bryan Gardner for The New York Times

Caramelized zucchini makes a rich, sweet and jammy pasta sauce.

Profiles

Rachael Leigh Cook, the star of millennial classics like "She's All That" and "Josie and the Pussycats," is ready for a new chapter.

Life Change

It's never too late to ditch the city and run a farm.

World Through a Lens
A moose in North Fork Cascade Canyon.Stephen Hiltner/The New York Times

Mountains, wildflowers, moose: A hike through the Teton Range in Wyoming offers stunning views.

Now Time to Play

The pangrams from yesterday's Spelling Bee were annihilation and inhalation. Here is today's puzzle — or you can play online.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: "Very funny" (four letters).

If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

Correction: Yesterday's newsletter incorrectly stated that 13 U.S. soldiers died in last week's bombing in Kabul. Only one was an Army soldier; the others were Marines and a Navy medic.

P.S. The Washington Post profiled Maggie Haberman, who went from moonlighting as a bartender to covering the Trump White House.

"The Daily" is about America's final hours in Afghanistan.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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Monday, August 30, 2021

The Morning: Is vaccine immunity really waning?

Plus: The latest on Ida

Good morning. Vaccine immunity may not really be waning much — which means universal booster shots may do little good.

A mobile vaccine clinic in West Palm Beach, Fla., this month.Saul Martinez for The New York Times

The booster-industrial complex

Late last month, researchers in Israel released some alarming new Covid-19 data. The data showed that many Israelis who had been among the first to receive the vaccine were nonetheless catching the Covid virus. Israelis who had been vaccinated later were not getting infected as often.

The study led to headlines around the world about waning immunity — the idea that vaccines lose their effectiveness over time. In the U.S., the Israeli study accelerated a debate about vaccine booster shots and played a role in the Biden administration's recent recommendation that all Americans receive a booster shot eight months after their second dose.

But the real story about waning immunity is more complex than the initial headlines suggested. Some scientists believe that the Israeli data was misleading and that U.S. policy on booster shots has gotten ahead of the facts. The evidence for waning immunity is murky, these scientists say, and booster shots may not have a big effect.

After returning from an August break last week, I have spent time reaching out to scientists to ask for their help in understanding the current, confusing stage of the pandemic. How worried should vaccinated people be about the Delta variant? How much risk do children face? Which parts of the Covid story are being overhyped, and which deserve more attention?

I will be trying to answer these questions in the coming weeks. (I'd also like to know what questions you want answered; submit them here.)

One of the main messages I'm hearing from the experts is that conventional wisdom about waning immunity is problematic. Yes, the immunity from the Covid vaccines will wane at some point. But it may not yet have waned in a meaningful way.

"There's a big difference between needing another shot every six months versus every five years," Dr. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. "So far, looking at the data we have, I'm not seeing much evidence that we've reached that point yet."

Simpson strikes again

At first glance, the Israeli data seems straightforward: People who had been vaccinated in the winter were more likely to contract the virus this summer than people who had been vaccinated in the spring.

Yet it would truly be proof of waning immunity only if the two groups — the winter and spring vaccine recipients — were otherwise similar to each other. If not, the other differences between them might be the real reason for the gap in the Covid rates.

As it turns out, the two groups were different. The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel. Their higher infection rate may have stemmed from the new risks they were taking, not any change in their vaccine protection.

Statisticians have a name for this possibility — when topline statistics point to a false conclusion that disappears when you examine subgroups. It's called Simpson's Paradox.

This paradox may also explain some of the U.S. data that the C.D.C. has cited to justify booster shots. Many Americans began to resume more indoor activities this spring. That more were getting Covid may reflect their newfound Covid exposure (as well as the arrival of Delta), rather than any waning of immunity over time.

'Where is it?'

Sure enough, other data supports the notion that vaccine immunity is not waning much.

The ratio of positive Covid tests among older adults and children, for example, does not seem to be changing, Dowdy notes. If waning immunity were a major problem, we should expect to see a faster rise in Covid cases among older people (who were among the first to receive shots). And even the Israeli analysis showed that the vaccines continued to prevent serious Covid illness at essentially the same rate as before.

"If there's data proving the need for boosters, where is it?" Zeynep Tufekci, the sociologist and Times columnist, has written.

Part of the problem is that the waning-immunity story line is irresistible to many people. The vaccine makers — Pfizer, Moderna and others — have an incentive to promote it, because booster shots will bring them big profits. The C.D.C. and F.D.A., for their part, have a history of extreme caution, even when it harms public health. We in the media tend to suffer from bad-news bias. And many Americans are so understandably frightened by Covid that they pay more attention to alarming signs than reassuring ones.

The bottom line

Here's my best attempt to give you an objective summary of the evidence, free from alarmism — and acknowledging uncertainty:

Immunity does probably wane modestly within the first year of receiving a shot. For this reason, booster shots make sense for vulnerable people, many experts believe. As Dr. Céline Gounder of Bellevue Hospital Center told my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, the C.D.C.'s data "support giving additional doses of vaccine to highly immunocompromised persons and nursing home residents, not to the general public."

The current booster shots may do little good for most people. The vaccines continue to provide excellent protection against illness (as opposed to merely a positive Covid test). People will eventually need boosters, but it may make more sense to wait for one specifically designed to combat a variant. "We don't know whether a non-Delta booster would improve protection against Delta," Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania told me.

A national policy of frequent booster shots has significant costs, financially and otherwise. Among other things, the exaggerated discussion of waning immunity contributes to vaccine skepticism.

While Americans are focusing on booster shots, other policies may do much more to beat back Covid, including more vaccine mandates in the U.S.; a more rapid push to vaccinate the world (and prevent other variants from taking root); and an accelerated F.D.A. study of vaccines for children.

As always, we should be open to changing our minds as we get new evidence. As Richterman puts it, "We have time to gather the appropriate evidence before rushing into boosters."

THE LATEST NEWS

Hurricane Ida
The French Quarter in New Orleans yesterday.Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Afghanistan
President Biden watched as fallen U.S. service members arrived at Dover Air Force Base yesterday.Doug Mills/The New York Times
  • A U.S. drone strike blew up a vehicle that officials said was an "imminent ISIS-K threat" to Kabul's airport. Afghans said the strike killed as many as nine civilians, including children.
  • The airlift of Afghans fleeing Taliban rule has shut down. Britain withdrew its last troops yesterday.
  • With one day left until President Biden's deadline for withdrawal, about 300 U.S. citizens who want to leave remain in Afghanistan.
  • Biden met with the families of the 13 U.S. soldiers killed in last week's suicide bombing in Kabul.
  • The U.S. and 97 other countries said they would accept Afghan refugees.
Other Big Stories
Opinions

Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Afghanistan and Biden's domestic agenda.

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MORNING READS

Tokyo Paralympics: After years of pain, Morgan Stickney is closer to a world record than ever.

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The Media Equation: Welcome to Politico's billion-dollar drama.

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Quiz time: The average score on our most recent news quiz was 6.3. Can you do better?

Lives Lived: Ed Asner won five Emmy Awards portraying the gruff but lovable newsman Lou Grant. He died at 91.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Charli D'Amelio, left, and her family.Philip Cheung for The New York Times

TikTok stars on a bigger screen

For 14 years, the Kardashians ruled the genre of reality shows documenting famous families. When their program ended this summer, it left a gap in the TV landscape — one that the D'Amelios, TikTok's most famous family, want to fill with an upcoming documentary series on Hulu.

Charli D'Amelio, 17, is the most popular person on TikTok, with 123 million followers. She's sold signature drinks at Dunkin' and has appeared in Super Bowl commercials. Her sister Dixie, 20, and their parents also have large followings.

Sara Reddy, the showrunner, who had previously worked on "Toddlers and Tiaras," said she wasn't familiar with the family when she was first pitched them as subjects. "I'm not a teenager. I really found it easy to roll my eyes at social media during Covid," she told The Times. "Then I dug in, and what really struck me was I felt like the family was a living social experiment." She added, "I came into their life right as fame was changing for them." — Sanam Yar, a Morning writer

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
Bryan Gardner for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Lish Steiling.

Make one-pot orzo with tomatoes, corn and zucchini.

What to Watch

Why are Steve Martin, Selena Gomez and Martin Short working together? It's a mystery.

What to Read

Nineteen new books to look forward to this September, including works by Colson Whitehead, Sally Rooney and more.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from Friday's Spelling Bee was mahogany. Here is today's puzzle — or you can play online.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Foe (five letters).

If you're in the mood to play more, find all of our games here.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. Kathy Ryan and Maureen Dowd capture The Times's deserted New York newsroom.

"The Daily" is about California's recall election. On the Book Review podcast, A.O. Scott discusses William Maxwell.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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