The Morning: Caution vs. optimism

Cases are rising in the U.S. as the vaccine campaign accelerates. We explain why.

View in browser|nytimes.com March 31, 2021 By the staff of The Morning Good morning. Cases are rising again in the U.S., even as the vaccine campaign accelerates. We explain why. An 83-year-old woman received a vaccine at home in Yonkers, N.Y., this week.Stephanie Keith/Reuters Caution vs. optimism The news about the state of the pandemic in the U.S. has been largely positive in the past few months. The vaccines are highly effective, and millions of people are receiving doses each day. Cases, hospitalizations and deaths have fallen sharply from their January peaks. But infections are rising again. The U.S. has averaged 65,000 new cases a day over the past week — a 19 percent increase from two weeks ago. That puts the country close to last summer’s peak, though still far below January levels. By The New York Times | Sources: State and local health agencies As those numbers make clear, the pandemic isn’t over yet. And it may get worse in the next few weeks. But there are still strong reasons to be optimistic about Covid’s trajectory in the U.S. What’s driving cases up? Several factors are fueling the upturn, Apoorva Mandavilli, a Times science reporter, told us. A more contagious variant (the one first identified in Britain, called B.1.1.7) is spreading. Some mayors and governors have continued to lift restrictions and mask rules. Many Americans are behaving less cautiously. And vaccinations have not gotten the country near herd immunity. Many experts aren’t surprised. “For literally a month and a half, we’ve all been predicting that the second half of March is when B.1.1.7 would become the dominant variant in the United States,” says Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown School of Public Health. “And sure enough, here we are.” The increase is not distributed equally. “New York and New Jersey have been bad and are not getting better, and Michigan’s cases are rising at an explosive rate,” Mitch Smith, a Times reporter covering the pandemic, said. Hospitalizations are also rising rapidly in Michigan, with Jackson, Detroit and Flint among the metro areas experiencing the highest rates of new cases in the country. The outlook is more encouraging in much of the West and South, though cases have started to tick up in Florida, where officials in Miami Beach instituted a curfew this month to prevent crowds of spring breakers from gathering. Still, Mitch noted, “compare the country to where we were in January, it’s hands-down way better.” Short-term worry, longer-term optimism What happens next? Cases could continue to rise in the coming weeks, Apoorva says. Between vaccinations and prior infections, half the country may have some form of immunity to the virus, according to Jha: “That still leaves a lot of vulnerable people who can get infected.” But the success of the country’s ongoing vaccination drive should keep deaths and hospitalizations well below their January peaks. Many of the people at the greatest risk of severe illness have already been inoculated, which means new cases are likely to be concentrated among younger and healthier people. And there are many reasons to expect the state of the pandemic to improve as summer approaches. More and more Americans will get vaccinated. The arrival of warmer weather will let more people spend time outside, where the virus spreads less easily. And cities and states could blunt some new cases by keeping indoor mask mandates. Caution in the immediate term and hope in the longer term can make for difficult public health messaging. President Biden walked that line this week, celebrating expanded vaccine access while warning that “reckless behavior” could lead to more infections. The solution, Jha believes, is honesty. “There’s been this debate throughout the whole pandemic: Should we be more optimistic or should we be more pessimistic? My personal strategy has been to just be honest with people,” he says. “Be honest with people and give it to them straight. I think most people can handle it.” In other virus news: Researchers in Britain are exploring the possible benefits of pairing doses from different Covid vaccines. An elite New York City hospital repeatedly billed patients more than $3,000 for a Covid test. THE LATEST NEWS Politics Representative Matt Gaetz in Florida in February.Erin Schaff/The New York Times The Justice Department is investigating Representative Matt Gaetz, Republican of Florida, over whether he had a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old girl. Gaetz denied that he had romantic relationships with minors and said he had no plans to resign. President Biden announced the nominations of 11 people to serve as federal judges, moving faster than any president in decades to fill open positions in the courts. Biden is presenting a $2 trillion package of infrastructure spending today. He will propose using revenue from increased corporate taxes to pay for roads, bridges, utilities and other needs. Dozens of Black business leaders, including the C.E.O. of Merck and the former head of American Express, urged corporations to fight a wave of Republican-backed bills that would limit voting access. Other Big Stories The Cup Foods store memorial has been a place of protest since last May.Joshua Rashaad McFadden for The New York Times On the second day of Derek Chauvin’s trial, six people who were at the scene last year as Chauvin knelt on George Floyd’s neck testified. The teenager who recorded the video at the center of the case said she sometimes lay awake at night, “apologizing to George Floyd for not doing more.” (Here are the takeaways from Day 2.) Two Capitol Police officers are suing Donald Trump, claiming he is responsible for the physical and emotional injuries they suffered during the Jan 6. riot. These photos show the conditions in an overcrowded border facility in Donna, Texas, that is housing more than 4,000 migrants. A January airstrike by the French Army targeting militants killed 19 civilians in Mali, a U.N. report found. The attack intensified calls for about 5,000 French troops stationed there to leave. G. Gordon Liddy, who concocted the bungled burglary that led to the Watergate scandal and the resignation of Richard Nixon, died. He was 90. The N.F.L. will add a 17th regular-season game, the first expansion of the league’s schedule since 1978. The Final Four is set for the N.C.A.A. basketball tournaments, after No. 1 seeds in each bracket — Gonzaga for the men and Stanford and South Carolina for the women — won last night. Opinions Thomas Edsall has a column, and The Times’s editorial board explains how to curb predatory for-profit colleges. Morning Reads Under the Sea: “There’s no bottom, no walls, just this space that goes to infinity. And one thing you realize is there are a lot of sea monsters there, but they’re tiny.” Lives Lived: Alvin Sykes converted to Buddhism in his 20s and led a monk’s life in the name of social justice. Though he was not a lawyer, he devoted himself to prying open long-dormant murder cases from the civil rights era, including that of Emmett Till. Sykes died at 64. If you’ve found this newsletter helpful, please consider subscribing to The New York Times — with this special offer. Your support makes our work possible. ARTS AND IDEAS Lil Nas X in his video for “Montero (Call Me by Your Name).”YouTube Lil Nas X, digital maestro Over the past week, the governor of South Dakota, Nike and several right-wing media personalities, among others, have come after the rapper Lil Nas X. Some were critical of his new single “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” and its accompanying hell-themed music video, in which he gives Satan a lap dance. Others were upset with the limited-edition sneakers he collaborated on called Satan Shoes. That outrage is by design, as The Times’s music critic Jon Caramanica writes. “What ‘Montero’ has caused — or rather, what Lil Nas X has engineered — is a good old-fashioned moral panic,” he writes. “The song, the video, the shoes — they are bait.” Lil Nas X found major fame in 2019 with his viral hit “Old Town Road.” But what has kept him relevant is the skill set he developed before that, as an ardent Nicki Minaj fan on social media. That experience made him a master at steering online conversations, a talent that translates well to pop stardom. “He is a grade-A internet manipulator and, provided all the tools and resources typically reserved for long-established pop superstars, he is perfectly suited to dominate the moment,” Caramanica writes. “‘Montero’ may or may not top the Billboard Hot 100 next week, but it will be unrivaled in conversations started.” — Sanam Yar PLAY, WATCH, EAT What to Cook David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. This salad has fried cheese. Movie Trivia In 1962, “King Kong vs. Godzilla” was an ambitious monster movie that pitted two of the most popular creatures in cinema history against each other. Six decades later, they’re having a rematch. Virtual Travel Pretend you’re in New Orleans with this guide. (Ideally, while listening to Big Freedia’s music.) Now Time to Play The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was cornball. Here is today’s puzzle — or you can play online. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: ___ chowder (four letters). If you’re in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. President Lyndon Johnson announced he would not run for re-election 53 years ago today, the last time a U.S. president has done so. The Times covered the news with a front-page banner headline. You can see today’s print front page here. Today’s episode of “The Daily” is an interview with Senator Raphael Warnock. On “The Argument,” do hate crime laws work? Lalena Fisher, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Sanam Yar wrote today’s newsletter. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. The Morning Briefing newsletter is now The Morning newsletter. You received this email because you signed up for the newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

The Morning: The cost of a stuck ship

A look at what happened with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story March 30, 2021 By Claire Moses Good morning. A massive container ship that had been stuck in the Suez Canal is free. But the disruption isn’t over. Ever Given, one of the world’s largest container ships, floating along the Suez Canal yesterday.Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters ‘Not just like flipping a switch’ After almost a week of dredging, drigging and tugging — and with some help from the moon — salvage teams yesterday freed the giant container ship that had been stuck in the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. As a result, traffic has resumed for the hundreds of ships waiting on both ends of the canal. And while estimates have varied wildly, the delay is also expensive. “The disruption has caused the canal authorities in Egypt losses of $95 million in revenue,” The Times’s Peter Goodman told me. And even though the ship is free, the disruption isn’t over. “It’s not just like flipping a switch,” Vivian Yee, the Times’s Cairo bureau chief, told me. Now that the ship is out of the way, the backlog will take at least a few days, maybe even weeks, to resolve. What happened? High winds from a sandstorm caused the ship, the Ever Given, to turn sideways in the canal and get stuck, its operators said. But shipping experts have suggested that while the wind probably had a role in the crisis, human error might have, too. Last year, almost 19,000 ships traveled through the canal without an accident, according to the chief of the Suez Canal Authority, the Egyptian agency that operates the waterway. And high winds aren’t unusual in the area. “We’ve seen worse winds,” Ahmad al-Sayed, a security guard, told The Times, “but nothing like that ever happened before.” The crews working to dig out the ship were largely dependent on forces beyond their control: the moon and the tides. The full moon on Sunday offered a few extra inches of tidal flow and gave workers the boost they needed to set the ship free. Not a normal ship It’s rare that a maritime disruption makes international news. But this was not your average mishap. For one, the Suez Canal isn’t like other waterways. “It is a vital channel linking the factories of Asia to the affluent customers of Europe, as well as a major conduit for oil,” Peter writes. And the Ever Given is one of the world’s biggest container ships. “From a distance, it’s hard to comprehend how big it is,” Vivian told us. “From land, all the containers on top look like Legos — and then you realize each one of those Legos is 20 or 40 feet long.” An aerial view of ships stranded in the Red Sea on Saturday.Mahmoud Khaled/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A global ripple effect In addition to shipping delays, the traffic jam has also affected manufacturing. There are a finite amount of big containers in the world, and many of them have been stuck at sea — creating a backlog of goods sitting in factories, waiting to be put in boxes, Vivian says. The crisis highlights a vulnerability of our interconnected world, Peter told us: “We have built a global distribution network that relies on goods getting where they are needed just as they are needed, with little margin for error.” The history: It took 10 years of hard labor — during which tens of thousands of Egyptian workers died — to build the canal in the 19th century. For more: This is how giant container ships are built. THE LATEST NEWS The Virus Healthcare professionals administering vaccines in Houston yesterday.Go Nakamura for The New York Times President Biden urged governors and mayors to keep or reinstate mask mandates, warning that “reckless behavior” had caused the recent rise in coronavirus cases. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the C.D.C., said she was worried the uptick in infections could turn into a fourth wave and implored Americans to “hold on a little while longer.” The Moderna and Pfizer coronavirus vaccines are proving highly effective in real-world conditions: The shots prevent 90 percent of infections after two doses, the C.D.C. found. Texas and five other states have begun providing vaccines to everyone 16 or older, regardless of health conditions. New York will expand eligibility to all adults next week. New York must offer vaccines to all incarcerated people, a judge ruled. A joint inquiry by the World Health Organization and China revealed no new insights into how the pandemic began, and it wasn’t clear whether Beijing would allow outside experts to investigate further. “We may never find the true origins,” an expert said. The Death of George Floyd Protesters gathered outside the courthouse on the first day of Derek Chauvin’s trial in Minneapolis yesterday.Joshua Rashaad McFadden for The New York Times The trial of Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis police officer charged in the killing of George Floyd, began yesterday. The prosecution argued that Chauvin acted with excessive force, and played a video that showed him kneeling on Floyd’s neck for more than nine minutes. “You can believe your eyes that it’s homicide,” a prosecutor told the jury. The defense argued that Floyd’s death was caused by underlying medical conditions and a drug overdose, and urged jurors to consider evidence beyond the video. This two-minute video shows key moments from the first day of the trial. Other Big Stories A man attacked a 65-year-old woman on a Manhattan sidewalk yesterday in an anti-Asian hate crime. The victim is in the hospital, and the police are searching for the attacker. Federal prosecutors charged Ghislaine Maxwell with sex trafficking of a minor, accusing her of grooming a 14-year-old girl to engage in sexual acts with Jeffrey Epstein. The Biden administration plans to expand offshore wind turbines along the East Coast, aiming to generate enough energy to power 10 million homes by 2030. The Houston Cougars advanced to the national semifinals of the N.C.A.A.’s men’s basketball tournament for the first time since 1984. In the women’s tournament, UConn snuck past Baylor to make it to the Final Four. Opinions After the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, does the U.S. need a domestic terrorism law? Yes: Making domestic terrorism a federal crime would help law enforcement punish violent extremists, says Elizabeth Neumann, a former Trump administration official. It would also deter future violence, Mary McCord and Jason Blazakis write in Lawfare. No: “The problem is not lack of laws. It is a lack of will” to pursue extremists using existing law, the A.C.L.U.’s Hina Shamsi argues. And some progressives fear that the government could exploit the law to limit Americans’ rights or target minority communities, Vox’s Nicole Narea explains. Morning Reads Makeover: The beauty industry has entered a phase of total pop-culture domination. Celebrities, social media stars and lifestyle influencers are changing the way the sell works. Lives Lived: A fierce advocate for New York’s disabled, Edith Prentiss fought to make the city she loved more navigable for everyone. She died at 69. If you’ve found this newsletter helpful, please consider subscribing to The New York Times — with this special offer. Your support makes our work possible. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Jing Fong, the largest restaurant in Manhattan’s Chinatown, this month.Andrew Seng for The New York Times Chinatowns are struggling Chinese restaurants have suffered more during the pandemic than most other U.S. restaurants. Their business began declining sooner — in January of last year, when news broke that a new virus was circulating in Wuhan, China. The restaurants have also had to cope with a rise in anti-Asian racism — “vandalized, robbed, attacked online in racist Yelp reviews,” as The Washington Post reported. Xi’an Famous Foods in New York began closing early after two employees were punched in the face while commuting to and from work. Grace Young, a decorated author of cookbooks, is worried that traditional Chinatowns, like New York’s and San Francisco’s, will never recover from the pandemic, and she has spent months trying to call attention to the problem. “When you step into those restaurants, you are stepping back in time, and it’s a privilege,” Young said on a recent episode of “The Splendid Table,” a food podcast. For anyone who wants to help Chinese restaurants, Francis Lam, the host of “The Splendid Table,” offered a suggestion: “If you can, order yourself some Chinese takeout. Get extra. Leftovers are your friend.” In The Times, Bonnie Tsui has more tips for supporting restaurants. — David Leonhardt PLAY, WATCH, EAT What to Cook Linda Xiao for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini. Umami-rich seaweed takes creamy asparagus pasta to the next level. What to Watch See a short opera film starring the drag queen Sasha Velour, a “RuPaul’s Drag Race” winner and lip-syncing legend. Meanwhile, on TikTok Young artists are bypassing art schools and student loans, quitting their day jobs and pursuing careers as full-time artists on TikTok. But what happens when viewership plummets and copycats arrive? Now Time to Play The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was untucked. Here is today’s puzzle — or you can play online. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Sneezing sound (five letters). If you’re in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — Claire P.S. Send us a question for the News Quiz! Submit a suggestion before noon Eastern tomorrow, and we may feature it in this week’s quiz. You can see today’s print front page here. Today’s episode of “The Daily” is about Georgia’s election law. On “The Ezra Klein Show,” Ted Chiang discusses science fiction, technology and superheroes. Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. The Morning Briefing newsletter is now The Morning newsletter. You received this email because you signed up for the newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018