Thursday, July 2, 2020

Your Thursday Briefing

A bright spot in the virus numbers, new problems for the economy, the debate over reopening schools

Good morning. The economic rebound is stalling. Biden outraised Trump for the second straight month. And virus deaths keep falling even as cases keep rising — for now.

Why virus deaths are down but may soon rise

Intensive care unit at the United Memorial Medical Center in Houston on Tuesday.Go Nakamura/Getty Images

The coronavirus trends in the United States are pretty dark right now. The number of new cases is surging, unlike in most other affluent countries. And Fourth of July gatherings have the potential to make a bad situation worse.

But there is one important bright spot: The percentage of virus patients who die from it has continued to decline.

By The New York Times

This explains an otherwise confusing contrast. Coronavirus deaths in the U.S. have been falling for most of the last 10 weeks — to about 600 a day recently, down from more than 2,000 in late April — even though the overall caseload was holding fairly steady for much of that period and has lately been spiking.

President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have argued that the continuing decline in deaths proves that the virus is under control. That’s not correct, epidemiologists say. But the decline really is good news.

Here’s how to understand it, based on two main causes — and one big caveat:

  • Medical treatment has improved. Doctors and nurses often diagnose the virus more quickly than they did a few months ago, thanks in part to more widespread testing. They have also had some success treating symptoms with remdesivir and other drugs. “The sooner you get treatment to people, the better they’re going to do,” my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, a health reporter, says.
  • Older people are being more careful. The virus is usually rougher on older people, and many have responded with extra caution. As a result, they make up a falling percentage of new virus cases — which has helped reduce the death rate.
  • The caveat: Deaths may be on the verge of rising again. The flip side of the greater caution among the elderly is that many middle-aged and younger people are acting as if they’re invulnerable. Their increased social activity has fueled an explosion in cases over the last three weeks, which in turn could lead to a rise in deaths soon.

The timing remains unclear. In the spring, the trend line for deaths lagged the trend line for cases by only about a week. But that may have reflected the relatively modest number of tests being done at the time.

With testing now more widespread, it’s possible that the death data will lag the case data by closer to a month. (In a typical fatal case, the death comes three to five weeks after contraction of the virus.) If that’s correct, coronavirus deaths may start rising again any day.

Even the one piece of positive virus news is looking shaky.

In other virus developments:

THREE MORE BIG STORIES

1. The economy has new problems

Real-time economic indicators — on job listings, credit-card spending, retail foot traffic and more — suggest the economy has begun weakening again, The Times reports. Greg Ip, a Wall Street Journal economics columnist, adds, “After recovering rapidly from mid-April through mid-June the economy has shown signs of sputtering in the past two weeks.”

The main reason appears to be the resurgence of the virus.

Don’t be confused: This morning, the Labor Department will release a new jobs report, and most forecasters expect it to show an increase in employment last month. But the report is based on a survey done in the middle of June — before the latest virus surge. The Times’s Ben Casselman tells me: “While we won’t know the scale of the damage for a few weeks yet, we’re already seeing signs that the economic recovery is reversing course.”

2. White House rejects Russian bounty story

The White House continued to play down the conclusion by intelligence agencies that Russia paid bounties to Taliban-backed militias to kill American soldiers. Trump called the finding a “hoax,” and his national security adviser, Robert C. O’Brien, said the C.I.A. did not brief him orally about the information because there was no “consensus” about it.

But The Times explains why that position has not persuaded many outsiders: “It would be unusual, if not unprecedented, for intelligence with grave implications to be withheld from the president on the grounds that it lacked definitive consensus.”

‘A central piece of the puzzle’: Rahmatullah Azizi, a low-level Afghan drug smuggler who became rich after establishing a presence in Russia, was a key middleman who handed out Russian money to Taliban-linked fighters for targeting U.S. troops, officials say.

3. Biden tops Trump in fund-raising

Joe Biden and the Democratic Party outraised Trump and the Republicans for the second straight month in June, with a $141 million haul. Trump’s campaign raised $131 million. Both totals were nearly twice the numbers for May.

Here’s what else is happening

A man sat outside the so-called CHOP in Seattle on Wednesday.Ruth Fremson/The New York Times
  • The police have cleared out a section of Seattle that was ceded to demonstrators weeks ago, known as the Capitol Hill Organized Protest, after two people had been killed in shootings.
  • Jonathan Irons, a Missouri man serving a 50-year sentence for burglary and assault, was freed after his sentence was overturned. Maya Moore, the W.N.B.A. star, helped lead the campaign to free him, and she was there when Irons walked out.
  • A police officer in Miami is facing discipline after punching a woman in the face in a recorded episode that received wide attention on social media.
  • A New York appellate judge ruled that Simon & Schuster could release a tell-all book by Mary Trump, the president’s niece, reversing a lower court.
  • More than 1,100 Times readers responded to a callout asking how much money they made last year. Here are some of the responses — ranging from $24,000 to $415,000.
  • Lives Lived: When Angela Madsen, a gifted athlete, found herself paralyzed from the waist down, she took up rowing and started winning gold medals. She then set her sights higher: to row the oceans. She died at 60, while trying to cross the Pacific solo.

IDEA OF THE DAY: SHOULD SCHOOLS OPEN?

A growing number of pediatricians, childhood experts and parents are arguing that schools need to reopen this fall, even if it increases the risk of spreading the coronavirus.

“Widespread school closures come with devastating costs,” Joseph G. Allen of Harvard University wrote in The Washington Post, citing risks to learning, children’s health and parents’ ability to work. The American Academy of Pediatrics issued a similar warning this week. In a new Times piece, Deb Perelman writes: “Let me say the quiet part loud. In the Covid-19 economy, you’re allowed only a kid or a job.”

One way to offset the health risks is to delay the reopening of other industries. “If we truly want to prioritize schools opening and staying open, some other parts of our society might just have to wait,” Helen Jenkins, a Boston University epidemiologist, tweeted. Or as Jennifer Nuzzo and Joshua Sharfstein put it in a Times Op-Ed, the country should focus on opening schools, not bars.

Regardless, opening schools will not be easy or without significant risk. Sarah Cohodes of Teachers College at Columbia University has offered one set of ideas, which include prioritizing elementary schools and special education.

But there is reason for caution: While school openings in some countries seem to have gone well, they have led to outbreaks in Britain and Israel.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT, TINGLE

An oil that tingles and transforms

Craig Lee for The New York Times

When I was having dinner last year at Zhangmama, a little Sichuan restaurant in Beijing, a young couple eating next to me did me a favor: Realizing I didn’t speak Chinese, they signaled to the waitress to bring me a small bowl of oil in which I could dip my sautéed vegetables. The oil was made from Sichuan peppercorns, which have a numbing, tingling spice very different from hot peppers. It transformed my vegetables.

But the oil — which also goes by the name prickly ash oil — is not easy to find in the U.S. So I’ve been thrilled to discover a small company called 50Hertz, founded by a World Bank clean-energy specialist named Yao Zhao, that sells a boldly fragrant version. The company just began selling a new batch online.

On Instagram, the cookbook author Fuchsia Dunlop has recommended using the 50Hertz oil on dan dan noodles. You can pair either the noodles or your vegetables with Gong Bao chicken, adapted from one of Dunlop’s recipes.

Watch a blockbuster

It’s been a summer without blockbusters, as many movies — like Disney’s live action adaptation of “Mulan” and the sequel to “Wonder Woman” — postponed their release dates because of the pandemic. But we can still reminisce about iconic movies of summers past.

For fans of the “Fast & Furious” franchise, The Times has broken down the art behind making a thrilling car chase scene. Manohla Dargis talks about the enduring relevance of “Jaws,” a movie Steven Spielberg directed when he was only 27. And A.O. Scott reflects on a summer without superhero movies — and how that may be a good thing.

Celebrate the Fourth (sans crowds)

New York City, 1986.Sara Krulwich/The New York Times

Face painting at street festivals, sunbathers blissed out on beaches, children gleefully competing in sack races: Take a scroll through these archival photos from Independence Days of yesteryear. Though the pictures of large crowds, close contact and communal celebrations elicit a very different kind of nostalgia now, they’re a comforting reminder of what life might look like again, eventually.

Diversions

Games

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Dog with a powerful sense of smell (five letters).

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. We’re off tomorrow, for the holiday. Look for a special edition of the Weekend Briefing in your inbox on Saturday. — David

P.S. John Bolton’s “The Room Where It Happened” debuted at No. 1 on The Times’s nonfiction best-seller list.

Today’s episode of “The Daily” is about Brazil’s response to the coronavirus. On “The Argument,” whose statue should fall?

Subscribers help make Times journalism possible. To support our efforts, please consider subscribing today.

We’d like your feedback! Please fill out this short form.

Ian Prasad Philbrick and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Your Wednesday Briefing

An Election Day success, more evidence of Russia’s bounty program, a divide among airlines

Good morning. The U.S. sets another daily virus record. American Airlines will begin filling its planes. And Colorado offers a model for voting smoothly in a pandemic.

An Election Day success

A polling station in Denver on Tuesday.Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

Voters didn’t have to wait in long lines. Turnout was high. And results were available shortly after the polls closed.

Sounds almost too good to be true, doesn’t it?

It’s not. It is a description of yesterday’s primaries in Colorado.

The state avoided the miserable lines that voters in Georgia and Wisconsin recently endured — lines that are a waste of time and, even worse, a health risk during a pandemic.

And unlike in Kentucky and New York, Colorado didn’t take a week or more to count its ballots. It began counting before Election Day. After polls closed, at 7 p.m., people quickly knew that John Hickenlooper had won the Democratic nomination in a closely watched Senate race.

Colorado accomplished all of this thanks to a universal system of voting by mail, which began in 2014. The state sends a ballot to every registered voter weeks before Election Day. Voters can return the ballot by mail, so long as it arrives by Election Day, or can drop it off at any one of dozens of voting centers.

People can also vote in person, but fewer than 6 percent of voters do so in a typical election, said Amber McReynolds, the former head of elections in Denver, who now runs Vote at Home, an advocacy group. The atmosphere at Denver polling places yesterday, she told me, was “calm as can be.”

Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington also created universal vote-by-mail systems before the pandemic struck. In all these states, turnout has increased, with no net benefit for either party. Many other states are trying to expand mail voting this year, although often without universal mailing of ballots or as many drop-off locations as Colorado has.

In other political news:

FOUR MORE BIG STORIES

1. A mushrooming outbreak

The United States announced more than 48,000 new coronavirus infections yesterday, another daily record and an increase of 80 percent in the past two weeks. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned the Senate that the number could soon reach 100,000 a day if the country does not act quickly.

In other virus developments:

  • European countries began allowing visitors from outside the E.U. today, but excluded most Americans because of the U.S. outbreak. Here’s a guide for travelers.
  • Joe Biden accused President Trump of having “surrendered” to the virus. Biden said that, if elected, he would give Fauci an “uncensored platform to speak directly to the American people — whether delivering good news or bad.”

2. A divide among airlines

American Airlines will begin filling its planes to capacity again today, joining United Airlines, which was already doing so. The other two largest U.S. carriers — Delta and Southwest — have committed to keeping some seats empty through September.

It’s still not clear how easily the coronavirus spreads on airplanes: They have better air circulation than typical indoor spaces, but people can be packed tightly. For that reason, some epidemiologists are worried that American and United are prioritizing profits over safety.

“From an economic standpoint, it makes perfect sense,” Janet Baseman of the University of Washington School of Public Health told me by email. “From a public health standpoint, it is problematic because there is no hope of physical distancing.” She added: “If I were to hop on a plane (which I will not be anytime soon unless it is absolutely necessary), I would choose a carrier that would allow more space.”

3. Russia’s growing aggression

The list of recent Russian aggressions is reminiscent of the Cold War, David Sanger and Eric Schmitt write. In addition to the bounty program on U.S. soliders in Afghanistan, there have been cyberattacks on Americans working from home and Russian jets flying off the coast of Alaska to test air defenses.

A family’s perspective: “If it does come out as true, obviously the heartache would be terrible,” said the father of a Marine who was killed last year in an attack that may be related to the bounties.

For more: On today’s episode of “The Daily,” one of the reporters who broke the news of the program discusses what we know now. In Opinion, Susan Rice, the former national security adviser, asks, “Why does Trump put Russia first?”

4. A chilling effect in Hong Kong

Pro-China demonstrators in Hong Kong on Tuesday.Anthony Wallace/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

China’s crackdown on Hong Kong has already begun to have an effect, with several major pro-democracy groups disbanding on the same day that Beijing passed a new security law. “Hong Kong people understand this means the end of the ‘one country, two systems’ model for the territory, and we are now reduced to being a city like on the mainland, like Shenzhen or Shanghai,” Joseph Cheng, a political scientist, told The Times.

The next step? People in Taiwan fear that China’s move against Hong Kong does not bode well for them, The Times reports from Taipei. “There is a high possibility of conflict,” a worried Taiwanese lawmaker said.

Here’s what else is happening

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IDEA OF THE DAY: BLACK AND WHITE

The New York Times

Effective yesterday, The New York Times began capitalizing the word “Black” when describing people and cultures of African origin. “We believe this style best conveys elements of shared history and identity, and reflects our goal to be respectful of all the people and communities we cover,” Dean Baquet, the executive editor, and Phil Corbett, another senior editor, wrote in a memo.

The Times will not be capitalizing the word “white.” As Dean and Phil explained: “There is less of a sense that ‘white’ describes a shared culture and history. Moreover, hate groups and white supremacists have long favored the uppercase style, which in itself is reason to avoid it.”

In The Atlantic, the philosopher Kwame Anthony Appiah has argued for capitalizing both “Black” and “white.” Neither is a literal description of skin color, he writes, and neither is a “fully formed and stable social category.” Both encompass a varied group of cultures.

Citing the work of Sally Haslanger, a fellow philosopher, Appiah concludes: “Racial identities were not discovered but created, she’s reminding us, and we must all take responsibility for them. Don’t let them disguise themselves as common nouns and adjectives. Call them out by their names.”

More on race: The Pulitzer Prize-winning writer Isabel Wilkerson compares American racism to the Indian caste system in a new article for The Times Magazine. “Their hierarchies are profoundly different. And yet, as if operating from the same instruction manual translated to fit their distinctive cultures, both countries adopted similar methods of maintaining rigid lines of demarcation and protocols,” she writes.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT, GRILL

It’s grilling season

Andrew Purcell for The New York Times

With the long weekend approaching, you may be itching to bust out the grill. Melissa Clark’s recipe for chicken thighs — coated in a balsamic vinegar glaze and spiked with ginger — is the perfect solution. The charred peaches glazed with honey butter work just as well as a dessert as they do a side dish.

Down to Gorky Park

If you’re of a certain age — say, between 40 and 60 — you may need to hear only a few bars of the whistling at the beginning of the song to recognize it: “Wind of Change,” a 1990 hit by the German heavy-metal band Scorpions. It turned into an anthem for Eastern Europeans welcoming the end of the Soviet Empire.

The journalist Patrick Radden Keefe has long been obsessed with a rumor that the C.I.A. wrote the song, and he chases it down in an eight-episode podcast. The full podcast is now available, and I recommend it. It’s full of entertaining mini-histories of spying, diplomacy and pop music. “On the one hand, this is an investigative story about Cold War espionage, but on the other hand, it’s about these ’80s hair-metal guys who are inescapably absurd,” Keefe told my colleague Hilary Moss.

Return of the Kentucky elk

An elk on Boone’s Ridge in Pineville, Ky.Morgan Hornsby for The New York Times

In 1997, on the grassy slope of a reclaimed mine, an elk stepped onto Kentucky soil for the first time in more than 150 years. Though the area was once full of wildlife, land development and hunting eliminated many buffalo, river otters, bald eagles and elk.

Read about how the state rebuilt its elk population, using old coal mines.

Diversions

Games

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Bottled water brand from France (five letters).

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. The word “saladcentric” — in a recipes article by Emily Weinstein — appeared for the first time in The Times recently, as noted by the Twitter bot @NYT_first_said.

Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey, authors of “She Said,” the story of their investigation of Harvey Weinstein, will discuss the book in an online event hosted by the bookstore Politics & Prose tonight at 7 Eastern.

Today’s episode of “The Daily” is about the suspected Russian bounty program. The new Popcast discusses what happens when pop superfans turn political.

Subscribers help make Times journalism possible. To support our efforts, please consider subscribing today.

We’d like your feedback! Please fill out this short form.

Ian Prasad Philbrick and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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